The inner-Vatican machinations of "Conclave" have nothing on this year's Oscar race.

Just as Edward Berger's film juggles various candidates for the papacy, the race for best picture at the Academy Awards has seen one favorite replaced by another, and then another.

While some clarity has lately emerged, with a handful of big wins for Sean Baker's "Anora," it seems likely to be a nail biter until a winner is declared at the March 2 Oscars, when white smoke unfurls from the Sistine Chapel, I mean the Dolby Theatre.

As of now, "Anora" is the clear frontrunner thanks to wins with the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild — both prizes with a long history of predicting Oscar winners. Where the Screen Actors Guild and the BAFTAs fall will offer the last major clues.

But unlike years like last year, when "Oppenheimer" was way ahead wire to wire, no lead in this year's best picture race seems ironclad. So, with that in mind, here are the best picture nominees, ranked in order of least likely to win to most likely to win. It's telling that at least half of these films, with three weeks to go, still have a chance.

10. "Nickel Boys"
If this was a ranking of merit, RaMell Ross's movie would be first. Ross' film, thrillingly and thoughtfully shot largely in first person, introduced a new filmic grammar to American movies. But "Nickel Boys" was seemingly on the cusp of getting a nomination, so we should just be glad it's counted here among the best of the year.

9. "Dune: Part Two"
Denis Villeneuve's first Frank Herbert adaptation garnered 10 nominations and won six. "Part Two" hasn't been the same awards force. It's up for five nominations and will probably walk home with one or two... Read More