There is a famous maxim that says that when the economy’s on the upswing, women’s hemlines rise. Perhaps the same can be said about the advertising industry—that when the economy’s doing well, ad creatives are inspired to be a little more daring, sexy, funny and irreverent.
From what I’ve seen so far this year, I predict 2004 will be a banner year for the creative. Just look at the figures. As I’m writing this, for the second month in a row, fewer people are filing new claims to collect unemployment benefits, the manufacturing sector is recovering, and profits for the fourth quarter are expected to be 20 percent higher than they were a year ago. Which means that pretty soon, we’ll be seeing the kind of stellar advertising that graced our magazines, newspapers, television sets and radios back in 1999.
What’s the connection between the financial climate and the level of creative work? A few factors come into play.
First, from the perspective of an editorial facility owner, when companies have less money to spend on advertising, directors have less decision-making power as to where their spots are cut and finished. And because smaller budgets meant many agencies eliminated traveling budgets altogether, directors have had to reach out to local editorial, effects and transfer houses, rather than the artists they prefer to collaborate with as part of their team.
Also, agencies during a down economy tend to play it safe with campaigns for fear of ruffling client feathers. By now, many agencies have learned the hard way that award-winning work doesn’t necessarily translate into profits, so one sees less of the in-your-face brazenness that populated TV, print and radio in 1999. Instead, account executives opt for watered-down creative that won’t make the client blush, or—even worse—think, laugh or cry.
So now that the economy seems to be improving, what will we see in the next year?
Directors will finally come into their own again. They’ll have more creative control over projects and will be able to handpick their production and postproduction teams. Boards will become more daring, but not merely for the sake of dropping a few jaws.
We have learned much from the experiences of 1999, and any zany creative we produce will have a focused marketing and creative brief to support it. Because e-tailers like eBay and Amazon are making the Web sexy again, we’ll see a resurgence in online advertising. And newer mediums like branded entertainment and advertainment will offer exciting opportunities for advertisers.
With the return of the creative, we’ll be seeing less of the account guy/gal running interference, if you will. Hopefully, we’ll be inspired to start pushing the envelope again—to hire the best talent, unrestrained by budgetary constraints or traveling mandates, and to explore new communication mediums. If my prediction has legs, we should see some of the best creative work since the boom. From the boards that have been gracing my desk since the start of the year, I think we’re well on our way.
