What a difference a year makes. At this time in 2006, Robert J. Coen, senior VP/director of forecasting at Universal McCann, issued his much anticipated annual forecast report for the advertising market. The prognostication was a rather flat 4.8 percent growth in ’07 as compared to ’06 in total U.S. advertising revenue. The research pegged the ad expenditure pie as amounting to slightly less than $300 billion in ’07.
That modest projection, though, looks almost bullish when stacked up against the readjusted reality as Coen recently lowered his projection for U.S. growth this year to a nominal 0.7 percent. Coen noted that in ’07, advertisers tightened the reins on their advertising budgets and strongly opposed above-average media price increases.
The performance in ’07 is all the more dismaying when compared to the 5.2 percent increase enjoyed by the industry from ’05 to ’06. Fast forward to today and there are the additional negative dynamics of skyrocketing energy costs, as well as apprehension over the housing sector with the subprime loan debacle and its potential to drag down the overall economy.
Thus for the upcoming year–even with a Summer Olympics and presidential and Congressional elections, typically factors that stimulate healthy growth in ad spending–Coen has issued a tempered forecast. He predicts a conservative 3.7 percent gain in U.S. advertising in ’08, which is even less impressive when inflation is taken into account. This 3.7 percent is revised downward from Coen’s estimate in June which forecasted growth of 5 percent in ’08.
He also now projected that while at least there’s growth to be realized in ’08, it’s unlikely that will carry over to ’09, which won’t have the benefit of major business boosters like the Olympics and a hotly contested national election.
Added cause for concern is the failure of the advertising sector to match the growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), which was up 4.8 percent in ’07. Advertising as a percentage of GDP has dropped from 2.14 percent in ’06 to 2.05 percent in ’07. If Coen’s 3.7 percent forecast is accurate for ’08, advertising expenditures in the U.S. would represent a further dwindled down 2.04 percent of the GDP next year.
Yet while the advertising biz is feeling the crunch, Coen said he doesn’t think there will be a recession for Madison Avenue.
Meanwhile there are encouraging signs in an ever evolving landscape. Looking ahead to ’08, Coen projected that the Internet will continue to be a prime medium for ad growth. He predicted ad spending on the web will rise some 16.5 percent next year as compared to ’07. While the dollar figures in so-called nontraditional media are a relative drop in the bucket in the overall universe reported on by Coen, they nonetheless are rising fast and exhibit significant promise.
Overseas ad spending is also on the rise with considerable growth in such countries as China, Brazil and India. Clearly, China figures to continue upwards in ’08 with Beijing hosting the Summer Games.
Coen released his findings last week. He has tracked spending trends for some five decades. His predictions usually are made twice a year, revising prior estimates as well as looking ahead.
Oscar Nominees Delve Into The Art Of Editing At ACE Session
You couldn’t miss Sean Baker at this past Sunday’s Oscar ceremony where he won for Best Picture, Directing, Original Screenplay and Editing on the strength of Anora. However, earlier that weekend he was in transit from the Cesar Awards in Paris and thus couldn’t attend the American Cinema Editors (ACE) 25th annual panel of Academy Award-nominated film editors held at the Regal LA Live Auditorium on Saturday (3/1) in Los Angeles. While the eventual Oscar winner in the editing category was missed by those who turned out for the ACE “Invisible Art, Visible Artists” session, three of Baker’s fellow nominees were on hand--Dávid Jancsó, HSE for The Brutalist; Nick Emerson for Conclave; and Myron Kerstein, ACE for Wicked. Additionally, Juliette Welfling, who couldn’t appear in person due to the Cesar Awards, was present via an earlier recorded video interview to discuss her work on Emilia Pérez. The interview was conducted by ACE president and editor Sabrina Plisco, ACE who also moderated the live panel discussion. Kerstein said that he was the beneficiary of brilliant and generous collaborators, citing, among others, director Jon M. Chu, cinematographer Alice Brooks, and visual effects supervisor Pablo Helman. The editor added it always helps to have stellar acting performances, noting that hearing Cynthia Erivo, for example, sing live was a revelation. Kerstein recalled meeting Chu some eight years ago on a “blind Skype date” and it was an instant “bromance”--which began on Crazy Rich Asians, and then continued on such projects as the streaming series Home Before Dark and the feature In The Heights. Kerstein observed that Chu is expert in providing collaborators with... Read More