The economic impact of the terrorist attacks in the U.S. has caused media forecasters to revise their earlier projections that the advertising business will rebound during 2002. Now worst-case scenarios have cropped up in predictions, with some estimating a decline in overall ad revenue next year.
TV networks are concerned that the ’01-’02 fall season will at the very least get off to a slow start. And over the longer haul, American viewing habits could be thrown off for months by news-triggered entertainment program pre-emptions and a shift in the national mood as the U.S. mounts its war against terrorism.
Advertisers and agencies are grappling with appropriate ways to get their messages across—for that matter, they’re grappling with what those messages should be in light of a national tragedy that will spawn ongoing developments.
Understandably, many commercialmakers were less than bullish about prospects in an advertising sector that was slow and sluggish prior to the cataclysmic events of Sept. 11. Now an all-consuming uncertainty is fuel for escalated fear and concern.
The ad industry, though, continues to represent a microcosm of overall society. Even as our world becomes more precarious, challenges and opportunities—and yes, even optimism—can emerge. From a creative standpoint, communicating with and striking a responsive chord in Americans through advertising represents an incredible challenge. The best and the brightest will succeed in crafting relevant messages—and relevant ad forms—for new and traditional media.
Though assorted pundits have said that comedy will become less prevalent in the ad arena, those creatives with high-taste levels will craft humor that is appropriate, which will help in the healing process. Humor is an essential part of our society’s fabric—and arguably even more essential in light of the pall cast by recent events.
Much can be said for perspective. Is the glass half full or half empty? In the immediate aftermath of the terrorist attacks, much of what I read, heard and watched relative to the ad sector centered on lost revenue. The shift from entertainment programs to round-the-clock news coverage cost major networks some $200 million to $350 million, much of which cannot be recouped. Local stations in New York, Washington, D.C., and Boston lost an estimated $25 million. Anticipated pre-emptions in the coming months will also impact revenue and advertisers’ desire to run commercials.
But generally overlooked is the paradox that the lost revenue also underscores the power of television. Not to detract from the potential of new media, but the old medium proved to be what Americans—and the world—turned to en masse in time of crisis. Society was glued to its TV set to get a handle on the state of fluid events. While the Internet got overloaded, translating into slow and spotty service, television came through (with the notable exception of those New York stations that had antennas atop the World Trade Center).
Television can still deliver the shared experience that people talk about the next day by the office water cooler. The mass medium has a unifying power, bringing people together, whether it be for the America: A Tribute to Heroes telethon or to witness history—or, as we hopefully get closer to some semblance of normality, to view entertainment and major sports events. Broadcasting remains incredibly relevant in our lives; its power to facilitate a sense of community is vital in the turbulent times ahead. And in that context, advertising has a tremendous—albeit challenging—opportunity to convey supportive messages, to stimulate business, to promote worthwhile causes and to take a lead role in mapping America’s road to recovery.
