As we begin the new year, the Writers Guild of America (WGA) strike against feature/TV studios is entering its third month with, sadly, no end in sight. At press time the two sides weren’t even at the negotiating table–but if and when they get to talking, the crucial topic will be compensation for content streamed and downloaded via the Internet.
The WGA contract for features and TV expired on Oct. 31, 2007, and slated to see their contracts come up in ’08 are the Directors Guild of America (DGA) and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG). Again, new media-related compensation issues figure to be pivotal in those negotiations.
While the status of the feature/TV business will undoubtedly have a significant ripple effect on the advertising industry–and arguably already has to some degree–there’s a more direct impact in store for the ad community as its own contract with the actors covering commercials is set to expire at the end of October.
Oct. 31 is when the two-year extension of that contract ends. The extension was agreed upon by the advertising industry and the actors union, namely SAG and the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (AFTRA). The two years have and are being used to conduct a joint study exploring alternative compensation models for performers spanning traditional spots as well as nontraditional ad fare spanning a growing array of new media. The results of that study are to be used to form the basis for renegotiating the next commercials contract this year.
There’s been nary a whisper of what that joint study has yielded thus far. Whether no news is good news or if that silence is ominous depends on whether you view the proverbial glass half full or half empty. Suffice it to say that new media discussions on all the aforementioned labor fronts will have a profound impact on the prospects for ’08 and beyond.
Model-making
While the outcome of labor/management negotiations will help to shape new business models, so too is the commercial production community looking to do some model-making in ’08 as nontraditional content can in many cases call for moving away from a work-for-hire scenario and exploring alternate means of compensation encompassing such areas as intellectual property and holding an equity stake in such content.
Indeed new media are already making their mark on commercial production house ledgers. According to the recently released annual independent study commissioned by the Association of Independent Commercial Producers (AICP), nearly 70 percent of AICP member production house survey respondents produced nontraditional advertising projects in ’06 (SHOOT, 12/21/07).
Furthermore the study found that producers estimate that about 18 percent of their current billings are generated by nontraditional content. And respondents projected that by 2010, some 38 percent of their billings on average will come from this area.
Looking to address and help define new business models in this evolving marketplace is the AICP.next committee, which was formed in ’06. Among the AICP.next initiatives, for example, is the development of a contract covering long-form interactive content covering webisodes and other fare. Clearly in this evolving arena of new content forms, the standard AICP bid form and agency broadcast production contracts will prove to be no longer applicable.
Industry feedback Prospects for the new year, though, are embodied in the thoughts and feelings of those throughout the industry. So for SHOOT’s Agency Creative and Editing & Post focuses in this ’08 kickoff issue, we surveyed leading artisans in these fields to get their takes on what they’re predicting, looking and wishing for this year.
So enjoy the following responses from prominent agency creatives, editors and post folk who share their takes on what ’08 has in store:
2008 FORECAST: AGENCY CREATIVE
SHOOT surveyed a mix of agency creative directors to get their thoughts on the year ahead. They were asked to respond to one or both of the following questions.
Here’s a sampling of their feedback:
1. What’s your New Year’s Resolution creatively speaking and/or from an industry standpoint?
2. Gazing into your crystal ball, what do you envision for 2008?
Roger Camp, chief creative officer, Publicis & Hal Riney, San Francisco
Three resolutions:
1) In regards to Riney my resolution creatively is to continue the upswing we’ve seen here through the latter half of the year with both new business activity and broadening the creative range.
2) Collaborate with smart, nice, talented, hard working people, from clients to new hires to production.
3) As Polly Anna as it sounds, my ultimate New Year’s resolution is to simply have fun at all of it.
Crystal ball: I see 2008 as the year to figure out agency compensation. As our industry continues to wrestle with what is financially fair… Is it hours spent servicing a brand? The number of ideas delivered? The quality of ideas delivered? Or straight up measured objectives?… I think we’ll continue to see agencies find more and more creative ways to partner with our clients to share in both the risk and reward.
Another hurdle that will continue to play out is IP [intellectual property] ownership. It’s been a sticking point both with agencies and clients, agencies and production companies, as well as agencies and agency creatives. As agency offerings continue to become more diverse I can imagine the IP waters will get murkier before they get better.
Rei Inamoto, global creative director, AKQA, San Francisco
New Year’s resolution:
“Beat Halo 3.”
We were part of the team to launch Halo 3 — the most anticipated game title in recent years. When it was released in late September, within the first week, it became the biggest entertainment launch in history, surpassing Spiderman 3’s record, which was the previous biggest launch until Halo.
Creatively speaking, I’m very proud of the work we did AND the impact that it had. It was great to see reactions from the creative community but also, the reaction from the fans–the real consumers–of Halo.
Crystal ball: “The next Big Thing in digital will shake the industry–again.”
In 2005, every client and agency was trying to do viral video. Then it was user-generated content in 2006 that was mentioned in every brief. With MySpace and Facebook, it was social networks that were all the rage in 2007.
All of these are consumer-driven platforms that are enabled by digital technologies. 2008 will usher another Big Thing in digital space–this space that, in less than five years, has influenced the rest of the industry of the last 50 years.
Michael Boychuk, creative director, WongDoody, Los Angeles
New Year’s resolution: It seems that nearly every day someone rushes up to me with a brief in hand and a desire to see work in days rather than weeks.
My resolution is to stop rushing so damn much. That’s not to say that I’ll start working slower, but if at all possible we need to give our work the time it deserves to make sure it’s done right. It doesn’t take much. Just a moment here and there to pause, take a breath and be sure that what we’ve done is really the ultimate solution. Just because we can do an ad in about an hour doesn’t mean we should.
Sometimes we become slaves to deadlines when the quality of the work we produce is our real master.
I can’t remember the last time a client has said: “Hey, the work was only so-so, but great job meeting that ridiculous deadline.”
Got to run. I’ve got another crushing deadline to meet.
Crystal ball:
The “internets” are here to stay, but despite reports to the contrary, the 30-second spot will continue to be alive and well and expensive as hell to produce and run. “User-created content” will be officially pronounced dead after yet another Super Bowl chock full of mediocre ads (created by users, of course).
Greg Hahn, executive VP/executive creative director, BBDO New York
New Year’s resolution:
Creatively speaking, my resolution for 2008 is to always trust my gut. To let instinct triumph over logic. To let intuition rule over rational.
Although for some reason, my gut is telling me to use this space to talk about Jazzercise, so I don’t know, maybe it’s more of a balance then an absolute.
Crystal ball:
Screens will get smaller. Budgets will decrease. Timelines will contract.
Attention spans will shrink. Ideas will get bigger.
Albert Kelly, executive creative director, Fallon Minneapolis
New Year’s resolution: I’d like to use Jon Voight, on camera or as a VO. Either that or Buddy Ebsen, even though he’s dead. I think they’re both undervalued entertainment assets.
Crystal ball: Many more articles about the death of advertising.
Chris Mitton, group creative director, Ogilvy & Mather, New York
New Year’s resolution:
To have fun, try new things, and encourage our clients to do the same. It’s a really exciting time…The new media environment means that you don’t have to repeat yourself. You can talk about a brand in a seemingly endless number of environments, and in completely new ways.
Instead of refining approaches you have tried in the past, you can attempt things neither you or the client has ever done before, and are inventing for the first time. It forces you to use different parts of your brain, and that’s usually where the most interesting ideas are hiding. I look forward to seeing how many of them we can find in 2008.
Peter Nicholson, partner/chief creative officer, Deutsch New York
New Year’s resolution:
I feel the word ‘innovate’ has given permission to creatives from all types of disciplines to slack off and compensate for their lack of creativity with a new gadget, widget, new media channel or some other technological flavor of the month. I don’t hear the word art mentioned in reference to what our industry makes as of late.
Therefore, creatively, my focus is back to the basics of the craft of advertising. Simple ideas that are well executed, remembering what I was taught long ago; an ad doesn’t have to be just an ad. You are making a piece of art.
Crystal ball:
I see–
1. Continuation of hype surrounding the best technology to communicate 1 on 1 with people.
2. The word mobility referring only to the mobile phone.
3. Bright color palettes so we can all feel inspired and happy and smile more.
4. A trend towards positivity (I believe positivity is an actual word now.).
5. Lots of outdoor advertising. The writer’s strike will not end soon.
So, TV will continue its downward spiral. And when it finally ends, the writers will continue to write crap because they will ultimately make a poor deal with all the networks and will become more cynical than they already are, and they will all truly “phone it in.”
Daniel Russ, executive creative director, R&R Partners, Las Vegas
New Year’s resolution:
The first team in the creative department to shoot this scene will win a trip to Bermuda: two midgets get into a fight in the aisle of an airplane.
They each pick up one of those little miniature liquor bottles, and just like in the old westerns they break their bottles to make sharp edged weapon.
Crystal ball:
A full blown over the edge recession. In fact, it might already be here. We’ll see more layoffs at the big media companies and in network agencies.
The dirtiest election campaigning we have ever seen. Expect the worst of it to come from its usual source: the GOP smear machine. Republicans are polling worse than ever in the history of polling. They look to lose more seats in Congress and the White House, so the attacks will be desperate and vicious. Expect brazen racism and sexism.
Dave Sylvestre, group creative director, Organic, San Francisco
Crystal ball:
In a user-driven society, it’s conversations that matter. The most effective campaigns for 2008 will be the ones that create stories around the brand. Stories that users will identify with, contribute to and claim as their own. Stories with the power to cause debate or rally consensus within communities. Those conversations will forge new interpretations of what the brand represents and what it has to offer. Ultimately, it will be the users who build and enhance the brand.
Bill Rosen, chief creative officer–North America, Arc Worldwide, Chicago
New Year’s resolution:
To continue to elevate our creative based on real insight–blending online and offline as seamlessly as they blend in people’s lives.
Crystal ball:
A year that more and more recognizes and rewards creative for its ability to impact human behavior and deliver measurable results.
Alan Schulman, executive creative director, director user experience, imc2, Dallas
Crystal ball:
2008 will be the year that General Agencies will FINALLY learn the Interactive creative business, and in turn, interactive agencies will really amp up their production/shooting capabilities beyond just green screen and talking heads. They’ll have to.
Specialized digital shops for the development and production of e-commerce and big publishers sites will continue to thrive as stand alones, but the majority of create, customize, share applications, video mashups and webisodes will be flowing from BOTH digital AND general shops.
The key will be who builds, who buys, and who outsources. I envision continued growth for pureplay digital hot shops like FirstBorn, Barbarian and Big Spaceship, while the Bigger AOR shops get busy learning online and the desktop junkies get busy learning offline.
Cyrus Vantoch-Wood, creative director, Atmosphere BBDO, New York
New Year’s resolution: My resolution this year is to refresh my inner geek.
As a kid eagerly tapping his ZX spectrum, trying like hell to make it play Jingle Bells, I was totally immersed in a tech world. Today, it’s the great soup of music, design, motion, photography, film, brand and GEEK that makes our industry the most exciting place to be in marketing. It’s time I got my soldering iron out and messed around more with the latest gadgets and gizmos.
Crystal ball: We’ll see more collaborations between artists and digital creative teams. Musicians, filmmakers and artists from a broad spectrum will help brands differentiate themselves and deliver more powerful experiences.
More digital agencies will be briefing traditional ones as clients realize that interactive two-way concepts can more easily translate into a one-way communication; the opposite is not always true.
Illustration in advertising will continue to explode, as consumers see designed characters as more relatable than lifestyle models and actors.
Lastly, as digital marketing continues to enable and enhance products, agencies will have more proactive creative relationships with their clients rather than working brief-by-brief.
2008 FORECAST:EDITING & POST
Post/Editorial Community Reflections On The New Year
SHOOT canvassed key players in the post/editorial community to get their feedback on prospects for 2008. They were asked to respond to one or both of the following questions.
Here’s a sampling of the responses we received:
1. What’s in store for 2008 on the postproduction/editorial front?
2. Share with us your wish list for the post/editorial industry in ’08.
Steve Beal, president, Bionic, New York
What’s in store for 2008?
When Bionic launched it was primarily a creative editorial boutique– Over the past three years we have seen our graphics/design and audio divisions grow to a point where it is a much more balanced company. Each department brings something to the table, each department benefits from the others’ presence. Our goal in 2008 is to continue building upon that balance and to continue collaborating with our sales team in search of a diverse client base..
Wish list: I am a big fan of lower-cost mass storage options. I always like seeing storage prices fall–as well as being able to offer cross-platform support, like being able to use Final Cut Pro or Avid on the same system. I would also like to see Adobe After Effects or a third party developer start to seriously step it up in the upcoming year. A piece of hardware that speeds render times would make our lives easier and would continue to give AE a leg up on platforms like Discreet Flame, Inferno, etc.
Bob Cagliero, executive producer, 89 Editorial, bicoastal, and president, AICE New York chapter, and VP of AICE International
What’s in store for 2008?
The lines between creative, off-line editorial and postproduction/design/visual effects will continue to blur. Companies that offer more comprehensive services in-house coupled with talented artists will continue to be most attractive to agencies/advertisers. It’s not only about being cost-effective, but also being a place where they can collaborate and explore more freely. This will continue to embolden and increase the scope and value of the editor.
2008 Wish list (realistic):
Advertisers understanding the value of an Editor more completely.
Agencies involving editors earlier in the process.
More group hugs.
2008 Wish List (somewhat dreamy) Budgets constraints to level off and understand our real costs.
Charlie Johnston, editor/partner, Lost Planet, bicoastal
What’s in store for 2008:
I see more editors on set working along side effects supervisors. Shoots are more complicated and, luckily, equipment has become portable.
Traveling to set will save time that would have been spent in the edit room figuring out what goes where. Also, the writer’s strike and looming SAG strike may be the catalyst for determining the future of advertising on broadcast TV. I predict editors will broaden their influence and we will ply our trade on the web and long format pieces like Martin Scorsese’s Freixenet ad.
Chris Byrnes, president, Charlex, New York
What’s in store for 2008?
In 08 we’ll see a continued escalation of projects that bundle directorial, motion design, cg, vfx supervision and editorial in one place.
Most high end spots are works of art requiring the elegant blending of invisibly complex effects. The creative vision starts sooner when directors team with designers and animators to previsualize a project. The collaborative all-in-one process is more efficient, costs less, looks better and is creatively more fulfilling.
Scott Gaillard, editor/owner, Outside Editorial, New York
What’s in store for 2008?
2008 will see a continuation of the diversification of the postproduction skill set. The wave of technological advancement coming from innovators like Apple has given rise to a new breed of talent and energy entering the production and postproduction landscape. Flame artists who direct, editors who are colorists, art directors who shoot, edit, retouch, etc., suggest a new community where sensibility, instinct and innate talent underlie a myriad of separate disciplines. We’re seeing through our own hiring practices; it is no longer enough to come out of art or film school with expertise in one area.
Wish list:
More daring creative projects coming from advertisers and agencies. A rethinking of Internet content as high-valued, quality work instead of what can sometimes seem to be afterthought videos. Continue to see the stream of young, pioneering, highly talented artists entering the profession.
Dominic Pandolfino, managing partner/owner, Nice Shoes
What’s in store for 2008?
As our industry grows and matures, the driving force behind creativity, innovation and the way we run our business, remains to be influenced by the evolution of technology. As equipment is able to do more, at lower costs, we are seeing agencies bring classic editorial and postproduction work in-house. With this change in the industry, there is a natural progression for postproduction and editorial companies to expand their offerings and the caliber of talent they represent. Since the marketplace is almost on an equal ground in terms of technology, the human factor of brilliant talent will set the great facilities miles above the average.
Dan Swietlik, editor/partner Cut + Run/Los Angeles
Wish list: Editing An Inconvenient Truth solidified my personal conviction about the importance of taking steps to create a more sustainable company…We have implemented changes to make an eco-friendly working environment including using carbon offsets for each project and encouraging the use of alternative fuel vehicles for commuting and deliveries. Unplugging electronics when not in use, setting computers to sleep after 10 minutes, changing regular lighting to CFLs or LEDs, eliminating or reducing plastic water bottles and buying local and organic are small steps that make a big difference.”
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