There’s a new craze going around the country, called the Nasdaq dance. Every day, tens of thousands of us who have invested our hard-earned dollars in tech stocks take a breath. Then we log onto the net to watch the wild price fluctuations of our favorite dot com stocks, and, depending on the day, do a little dance of relief or despair.
These fluctuations hit particularly close to home for many of us in the advertising and production business, since a year ago we were raking in the dollars from these very dot com advertisers. Unfortunately, much of the dot com advertising has come and gone at the speed of … well, the Internet …, as poorly run companies with silly business plans have blown through their badly planned advertising budgets at record speed and quickly headed south into bankruptcy.
While I certainly won’t attempt to predict the future of the stock market—and I must admit a bit of trepidation about my big investment in barstoolsonline. com—I am very confident that I am in the right business at the right time to still profit from the Internet boom. We are in a temporary bubble that will ultimately usher in a massive new renaissance for the television advertising and production business—so your best asset for the future is probably your talent and experience, as opposed to that Priceline.com stock. Smart agencies and producers that understand the needs of this new market will have the opportunity to profit as never before from the dot com craze. This massive influx of television production is inevitable for two primary reasons:
The Web will shift from graphic- to video-based content, and there will be an enormous need for "Web programming." Certainly this is not revolutionary thinking, but despite the limitations of current delivery systems, the transition is occurring now, and I believe the demand will snowball over the coming months. This shift will be a boon to producers in the advertising and corporate production arenas. Virtually all of our advertising clients are now producing video content for use in their Web sites as they create their broadcast campaigns, often doubling their production requirements. A campaign typically includes the broadcast components, CD-ROM or DVD components, and the Web components. Clients are anticipating a day in the very near future when their entire Web sites will be video based. Producers will replace the neighbor’s 19-year-old kid who graduated from high school last year and now makes 150K a year designing Web sites.
And as the delivery systems gain more acceptance, and the everyday Web cruiser has pipes big enough to really enjoy full-motion video on his or her computer or other Web delivery device, the floodgates will really open. The dedicated documentary producer that spent the last 10 years relating the plight of the Adojubu Indian tribe on film, only to find no one would buy the 30-hour series, will find Web networks clamoring for anything they can get their hands on. Of course, even in the Web network world, advertising dollars will reign king—so if nobody’s watching your work, you shouldn’t stake your fortune on the fact that it’s finally been broadcast. Still, the Internet will be a valuable outlet.
Advertisers will finally get smart about their advertising, and television will be the medium of choice. Despite the fact that the Web initially attracted thousands of carpetbaggers who capitalized on the dot com frenzy by stealing billions of dollars for stupid ideas so they could buy private jets—the Web really is a remarkable marketing channel that is still in its infancy. And television is the single best way to promote companies marketing on the Web for several important reasons. The first and foremost is convergence. Right now dozens of companies are competing for the ultimate technologies that will make it easy to switch from the television program you are watching to the Web. Obviously this will make television advertising the medium of choice for advertisers. They are salivating over the idea of a viewer watching a new campaign, being able to hit a button on the remote control and order the product before the commercial ends. Television advertising will increasingly adopt high-end direct-response formats, as instead of television time being sold based solely on branding ability and anticipated viewership, it will be judged on its ability to get viewers to click through.
There are also the great continuity and cost benefits of having television advertising and Web content produced at the same time. I would predict that corporations whose advertising, marketing, and Web divisions now operate separately, in vacuums, will integrate them to present a singular message.
So, smart advertising and production professionals need not worry during the Nasdaq dance. Your biggest portfolio gains are ahead of you.
