Divergent views on convergence were articulated during last month’s confab entitled "Advertising in the Digital Age: The Future of TV?" The evening session—which included a panel discussion and keynote addresses—was presented by The Carmel Group, a Monterey, Calif.-based research and consulting firm.
Perhaps most notable about the different observations was that they weren’t an either/or proposition. Opinions weren’t right or wrong, but rather all contained elements of validity—and that was true even with what on the surface seemed the most diametrically opposed viewpoints.
For example, panelist Marty Yudkovitz, president of NBC Digital Media, pointed out that the major broadcast networks are hardly obsolete. In fact, they’re more valuable than ever. He observed that with the fragmentation of mass audience via varied cable networks, the CPM for ad buys on mainstream broadcast network television has actually increased.
"Broadcasters have benefited from [audience] fragmentation, which was heralded as signaling the end of [network broadcast] television," contended Yudkovitz. Instead, he continued, fragmentation has made the delivery of a large audience all the more coveted, with advertisers clamoring to pay a premium for big Nielsen numbers.
However, an acceleration of fragmentation, which would eat further into those numbers, can hardly bode well. Again, Yudkovitz cited history. He related that VCRs and TV remote controls have had only a marginal effect on the advertising landscape, despite their respective fast-forward and ad-zapping capabilities. Personal digital video recorders (PVRs) now loom on the horizon. Yudkovitz cautioned, "The key question is ‘how quickly?’ As head of digital media, I’m a believer in the viability of new technology … But at the same time, I’d bet on lower and slower in terms of penetration in U.S. households."
Meanwhile, keynote speaker Christopher Gebhardt—senior partner/executive director at Ogilvy & Mather, New York, and head of OgilvyOne’s Digital Brands Group—observed, "The future of advertising is changing far faster than anyone expects … or that agencies are prepared to deal with. Over the next five years, the way consumers consume and expect to interact with media will change. There will be changes in the model."
Gebhardt cited the great dichotomy—while messages are becoming "increasingly addressable" in terms of targeting a particular demographic or audience, they are also becoming "increasingly avoidable." He advised agencies and clients to explore "collaborative co-creation models" in order to generate content that people will want to see for their entertainment value and/or relevance.
At the same time, he acknowledged that new-media penetration has fallen short of projections. "Advertisers want to start testing [in such areas as interactive TV and Video On Demand] but resist due to low penetration of set-top boxes," said Gebhardt. "There’s always a reason to say no." But testing and experimentation is invaluable, he affirmed, providing advertisers with a leg up on how to break through to prospective consumers in an evolving media marketplace.
Panelist Steven Mendelson, founder/CEO of BrandX Management, said it’s incumbent for advertisers to get involved in entertainment content. "More and more brands are baking themselves into programming … This is occurring aggressively in Asia … They are baking marketing messages into entertainment product. This is not product placement but entertainment content."
Referring to advertiser involvement in program development and sponsorship, Mendelson contended, "In many ways, we’re going back to the models TV began with." He added that emerging media forms represent an exciting time for the creative community, enabling us "to stitch together two constituencies—entertainment and advertising."
