Aegis Group’s media firm Carat has revised its forecast downward for both global and U.S. ad spending during the full calendar year 2009. Back in March, Carat projected a 5.8 percent decline in worldwide ad expenditures for ’09 as compared to the prior year. That figure has now been elevated to 9.8 percent due to lowered performances in all regions except for Asia Pacific which sports a marginal uptick.
Looking ahead to 2010, Carat sees significant improvement, going from a loss in ’09 to modest growth pegged at one percent globally. Carat attributed the turnaround to what it foresees as more stable conditions in the West and recovery in developing markets, particularly China.
Online advertising remains the only area of the media that will see growth this year, estimated at one percent globally. Online growth remains in double digits in the markets of Asia-Pacific and Central and Eastern Europe this year. However, low single digit growth in Western Europe and a decline in the U.S. have led to a downward revision in forecasts. Online growth should continue to make significant progress in 2010. Of the sectors, TV and cinema continue to hold up best, reflecting the relative popularity of cinema and home entertainment in the downturn.
Stateside report
However, the ad market in the U.S. is much slower, according to Carat. U.S. advertising spend in the first half of ’09 was well below the level in ’08. Previously committed activity was scaled back while significant incremental spending has not materialized this year. Carat’s revised full year projection for ’09 shows a 16.3 percent decrease in the U.S. when stacked up against ’08. The March ’09 forecast from Carat had predicated only a 9.8 percent increase stateside.
As for prospects for the U.S. in ’10, Carat concluded that a significant recovery could not be expected until the second half of that year at the earliest. All major media categories are tracking below last year. National television and radio have been holding up better, due to their ability to drive strong reach and awareness. Newspapers continue to be hard hit by both the weak economy and consumers spending more time online. The real estate and automotive categories have cut back sharply and classified advertising is weak. Digital losses have been softened by some traditional media spend shifting over and the continued strength of search advertising. Online video has also experienced growth; however online display has been much more negotiable in terms of price.
CEO’s assessment
Of the significant forecast revisions globally and in America, Aegis Media CEO Jerry Buhlmann said they “are not unexpected in the context of the recent volatility of the market, and represent a cautious attitude towards adspend this year, most significantly in the U.S. and Europe.”
He added, “Despite the reduction to forecasts for 2009, we still believe that 2010 will see growth, albeit very modest. We expect the market to bottom out in North America and Europe, and to improve further in developing markets. Even after that initial recovery, however, the global advertising market will still be below its absolute 2006 level.”
Apple and Google Face UK Investigation Into Mobile Browser Dominance
Apple and Google aren't giving consumers a genuine choice of mobile web browsers, a British watchdog said Friday in a report that recommends they face an investigation under new U.K. digital rules taking effect next year.
The Competition and Markets Authority took aim at Apple, saying the iPhone maker's tactics hold back innovation by stopping rivals from giving users new features like faster webpage loading. Apple does this by restricting progressive web apps, which don't need to be downloaded from an app store and aren't subject to app store commissions, the report said.
"This technology is not able to fully take off on iOS devices," the watchdog said in a provisional report on its investigation into mobile browsers that it opened after an initial study concluded that Apple and Google effectively have a chokehold on "mobile ecosystems."
The CMA's report also found that Apple and Google manipulate the choices given to mobile phone users to make their own browsers "the clearest or easiest option."
And it said that the a revenue-sharing deal between the two U.S. Big Tech companies "significantly reduces their financial incentives" to compete in mobile browsers on Apple's iOS operating system for iPhones.
Both companies said they will "engage constructively" with the CMA.
Apple said it disagreed with the findings and said it was concerned that the recommendations would undermine user privacy and security.
Google said the openness of its Android mobile operating system "has helped to expand choice, reduce prices and democratize access to smartphones and apps" and that it's "committed to open platforms that empower consumers."
It's the latest move by regulators on both sides of the Atlantic to crack down on the... Read More