Aegis Group’s media firm Carat has revised its forecast downward for both global and U.S. ad spending during the full calendar year 2009. Back in March, Carat projected a 5.8 percent decline in worldwide ad expenditures for ’09 as compared to the prior year. That figure has now been elevated to 9.8 percent due to lowered performances in all regions except for Asia Pacific which sports a marginal uptick.
Looking ahead to 2010, Carat sees significant improvement, going from a loss in ’09 to modest growth pegged at one percent globally. Carat attributed the turnaround to what it foresees as more stable conditions in the West and recovery in developing markets, particularly China.
Online advertising remains the only area of the media that will see growth this year, estimated at one percent globally. Online growth remains in double digits in the markets of Asia-Pacific and Central and Eastern Europe this year. However, low single digit growth in Western Europe and a decline in the U.S. have led to a downward revision in forecasts. Online growth should continue to make significant progress in 2010. Of the sectors, TV and cinema continue to hold up best, reflecting the relative popularity of cinema and home entertainment in the downturn.
Stateside report
However, the ad market in the U.S. is much slower, according to Carat. U.S. advertising spend in the first half of ’09 was well below the level in ’08. Previously committed activity was scaled back while significant incremental spending has not materialized this year. Carat’s revised full year projection for ’09 shows a 16.3 percent decrease in the U.S. when stacked up against ’08. The March ’09 forecast from Carat had predicated only a 9.8 percent increase stateside.
As for prospects for the U.S. in ’10, Carat concluded that a significant recovery could not be expected until the second half of that year at the earliest. All major media categories are tracking below last year. National television and radio have been holding up better, due to their ability to drive strong reach and awareness. Newspapers continue to be hard hit by both the weak economy and consumers spending more time online. The real estate and automotive categories have cut back sharply and classified advertising is weak. Digital losses have been softened by some traditional media spend shifting over and the continued strength of search advertising. Online video has also experienced growth; however online display has been much more negotiable in terms of price.
CEO’s assessment
Of the significant forecast revisions globally and in America, Aegis Media CEO Jerry Buhlmann said they “are not unexpected in the context of the recent volatility of the market, and represent a cautious attitude towards adspend this year, most significantly in the U.S. and Europe.”
He added, “Despite the reduction to forecasts for 2009, we still believe that 2010 will see growth, albeit very modest. We expect the market to bottom out in North America and Europe, and to improve further in developing markets. Even after that initial recovery, however, the global advertising market will still be below its absolute 2006 level.”
Sheriff Reports Preliminary Autopsy Results On Gene Hackman and Betsy Arakawa
Preliminary autopsy results didn't determine how Oscar-winner Gene Hackman and his wife died at their home in Santa Fe, New Mexico, but did rule out that they were killed by carbon monoxide poisoning, the sheriff leading the investigation said Friday.
The condition of the bodies found Wednesday indicated the deaths occurred at least several days earlier and there was no sign of foul play.
At a news conference, Santa Fe County Sheriff Adan Mendoza said the initial examination by the medical examiner showed no sign of carbon monoxide, a colorless and odorless gas produced from kitchen appliances and other fuel-burning items. When it collects in poorly ventilated homes, it can be fatal.
Mendoza also said an examination of the 95-year-old Hackman's pacemaker showed it stopped working on Feb. 17, which means he may have died nine days earlier.
Hackman's body was found in an entryway. The body of his wife, Betsy Arakawa, 65, was in a bathroom. She was on her side and a space heater was near her head. Investigators said the heater likely was pulled down when she fell. There also was an open prescription bottle and pills scattered on a countertop.
Whether the pills or other drugs were a factor won't be known until toxicology tests are completed in the coming weeks.
Dr. Philip Keen, the retired chief medical examiner in Maricopa County, Arizona, said it would be unlikely for a person who tests negative for carbon monoxide initially to later be found to have been poisoned by it.
He also said the moment when a pacemaker stops working could mark the point when a person dies, but not always.
"If your heart required a pacemaker, there would certainly be an interruption at that point — and it might be the hallmark of when... Read More