Forrester Research, a publicly-held independent research firm in Cambridge, Mass., began a hotly debated dialogue on Dec. 8, ’98 when it released a controversial report titled "HDTV Dreams; SDTV Realities." The report concludes that HDTV will fail, and broadcasters will use DTV’s wider bandwidth for multicasting SDTV formats, providing consumers with a more affordable DTV experience while offering the industry profitable business models. It also suggests that there will be a further splintering of the TV ad market.
HDTV proponents were quick to respond to the report’s conclusion. "Forrester makes predictions in its report about what consumers want without talking to consumers," says Gary Shapiro, president of the Consumer Electronics Manufacturing Association (CEMA). "Our HDTV research is based on consumer opinion surveys and consumer focus groups that included HDTV demonstrations. … Consumers want high definition TV and, in demonstration after demonstration, they express a strong preference for HDTV over standard definition TV."
A Forrester spokesperson said the company prepared the report because it independently identified DTV as a business that required more information. In preparing "HDTV Dreams, SDTV Realities," Forrester spoke with networks and station groups, cable and satellite operators, and program producers. Forrester interviewed more than 50 TV manufacturers, retailers, and software and equipment vendors to assess the impact of DTV on the industry. Procter & Gamble and Young & Rubicam were among those interviewed from the ad sector. Forrester emphasized that CEMA research was used to prepare the report.
Advertising played into the report’s conclusions. The report points out that HDTV would likely raise production costs but may not generate additional revenue. The report reads, "even HDTV-aware advertisers like P&G appear unlikely to pay more for high-definition spots, especially with HDTV sets economically out of reach for 90% of consumers.
"By 2002, 80% of the nation will be in range of four digital stations. But with HDTV prices still above $2,000 due to high display costs, annual HD sales won’t pass half a million sets," the report predicts. In contrast, it suggests that 480P sets will be available for roughly $1,000 by 2002. As a result, Forrester expects SDTV to be in four million households by 2003 and capture more than 80% of the market by 2008.
Forrester Research suggests that in addition to attracting consumers with affordable DTV sets, SDTV offers a variety of profitable business models. Chief among these is multicasting, which could improve revenues by creating new broadcast carriage options and expanding viewership; broadcasters will also experiment with datacasting.
Could the report conclusions provide some insights into what agencies should advise their clients? Josh Bernoff, principal analyst for TV research at Forrester, tells SHOOT that he would advise agencies to look into producing ads in widescreen. He says that regardless of SDTV or HDTV, widescreen "will certainly make a difference" for viewers with widescreen TVs. Here are some additional thoughts:
“Smile 2” Tops Weekend Box Office; “Anora” Glitters In Limited Release
Horror movies topped the domestic box office charts and an Oscar contender got off to a sparkling start this weekend. "Smile 2," in its first weekend, and "Terrifier 3" in its second proved to be the big draws for general movie audiences in North America, while the Palme d'Or winner"Anora" got the best per-theater average in over a year.
"Smile 2" was the big newcomer, taking first place with a better than expected $23 million, according to studio estimates Sunday. Parker Finn returned to write and direct the sequel to the supernatural horror "Smile," his debut. Originally intended for streaming, Paramount pivoted and sent the movie to theaters in the fall of 2022. "Smile" became a sleeper hit at the box office, earning some $217 million against a $17 million budget.
The sequel, starring Naomi Scott as a pop star, was rewarded with a bit of a bigger budget, and a theatrical commitment from the start. Playing on 3,619 screens, it opened slightly higher than the first's $22 million.
Second place went to Universal and DreamWorks Animation's "The Wild Robot" in its fourth weekend with $10.1 million, bumping it past $100 million in North America. Family films often have long lives in theaters, particularly ones as well reviewed as "The Wild Robot," and some have speculated that it got a bump this weekend from teenagers buying tickets for the PG-rated family film and then sneaking into "Terrifier 3," which is not rated, instead. Either way, Damien Leone's demon clown movie, which cost only $2 million to produce, is doing more than fine with legitimate ticket buyers. It added an estimated $9.3 million, bringing its total to $36.2 million.
"Rumors like that are PR gold," said Paul Dergarabedian, the senior media analyst for Comscore. "There's... Read More