Prior to establishing himself as a humorous, astute observer of human nature, comedian George Carlin had a stand-up routine in the late ’60s that included his playing a whacked-out news weatherman. "Forecast for tonight: dark," he said, providing a one-liner prediction that one could firmly rely on.
But when it comes to getting a reliable handle on the commercial production business in the year 2000, formulating an unerringly accurate, dare we hope definitive, prognostication can prove daunting. It’s been hard enough in years past just in terms of dealing with traditional television spotmaking relative to burgeoning growth in media expenditures. For several years running, ad media spending has risen steadily to record-high levels. The crystal ball view for 2000 is no different, with healthy global projections coming from McCann-Erickson Worldwide, London-based Zenith Media and New York-headquartered investment bank Veronis, Suhler & Associates.
For example, Robert J. Coen, senior VP/forecasting director at Universal McCann, New York-the media services division of McCann Worldwide-predicts that marketers will spend a record $233 billion on ad media in the U.S. this year, an increase of 8.3 percent as compared to ’99. Overseas in 2000, Coen foresees ad spending of $231.4 billion, up seven percent from ’99. Coen’s estimated worldwide total for 2000 is a $464.4 billion.
Zenith Media-which deploys different methodology than McCann-offers a similarly glowing report, predicting worldwide ad spending of $319.1 billion this year, a 6.5 percent hike over ’99. Driving the global surge, said John Perriss, chairman/chief exec at Zenith, is the U.S. economy, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the world’s ad media expenditures. He cited the country’s consumer boom and its "incredible" growth in dot-com ad spending.
However, over the past couple of years, a strong economy and media spending prosperity have not translated into commensurate growth for many commercial production companies. In ’98, for instance, assorted houses reported declines in business, with severely prolonged slow spells. And while the overall picture in ’99 improved somewhat, there are still many production companies being squeezed. This is due in part to the sheer number of houses and directors out there. Immediate concerns for the production community in 2000 include the ubiquitous tighter margins, increased competition, the high cost of procuring and developing directorial talent, and uncertainty over upcoming negotiations for a new actors’ spot contract. Add to this the confusion about how emerging ad media (i.e. the Internet, enhanced television) will shake out.
At the same time, new media represent opportunities for content providers-and production houses are mulling over how to best plug into and capitalize on the evolving ad landscape. Also cause for optimism is the fact that this is both an Olympics and an election year, stimuli which have traditionally helped boost spotmaking prospects.A SHOOT STAFF REPORT
