Editors’ Note: Due to space constraints, SHOOT ran the 2003 production outlook in an abbreviated form in the Jan. 10 issue. The outlook, in its entirety, appears below.
Outlook 2003
For an assessment of what the state of production will be in 2003, SHOOT posed the following questions to a cross-section of industry folks: What trends and developments do you expect in advertising for 2003? Overall, what do you think the creative climate will be in the coming year? What industry issues are important to you in the new year? What are your plans for 2003? Diversification? Expansion? Adapting to a changing landscape? New media? The answers are below.
John Andrews
Senior VP/creative director
Class-Key Chew-Po Commercials, Hollywood
Creative Climate Predictions: "I hope to see a continued move towards innovation, outrageous humor and sophisticated thinking, and a move out of the shadow of fear that influenced advertising so much in the wake of 9/11. And I hope that if there’s war we will avoid jingoism. I’m not predicting the creative climate—I’m voicing my hopes. Still I’m optimistic because I think the good people in advertising will continue to push their clients toward good things."
Industry Issues: "My sales effort as a service provider (i.e. animation) is very important to me. We’re expanding our client base through service. I think everyone is concentrating on their best relationships and cultivating new ones, particularly close to home, but also wherever they have them or can make them. And I think showing resourcefulness, creativity and willingness to take a chance is key. Another issue for me is the impact of the downsizing at the agencies. There are many agency creatives and producers who are desperately in need of orientation from professionals. I’m seeing it as a great opportunity for experienced people to be instructive."
Plans For 2003: "Our plan is to do good work and to have great people and great animation art to market to the community so we can continue to grow as a major source of animation talent, styles, and techniques."
Michael Appel
Owner/executive producer
Joanne Ferraro
Managing director
Coppos Films, bicoastal
Trends and Developments: "The biggest development in our industry over the past year has been the appearance and the growing importance of branded content. We continue to explore and experiment with this new model as the advertising business evolves beyond the :30 and :60 commercial format. We need to see leaders emerge from our industry who can help develop this new area and translate our production company models and our talent to embrace this new arena. Another key trend that is happening right now for production companies and all other creative service companies is the transition of our talents’ reels to DVD. The agency creatives are now asking to see reels exclusively on DVD, and we are excited about that because it is a higher-quality format with random access capabilities, and it is more efficient for everyone."
Creative Climate Predictions: "In hard economic times, it is difficult for production companies to remain creative because of the ever-shrinking budgets. This climate has forced ad agencies’ creatives to be more focused and smarter with their advertising. We, in turn, have to be smarter about [how we look] at projects."
Industry Issues: "The creative process is so different than it was five or 10 years ago, when there were no limits. These limitations can, however, be inspiring. We hope that agency creatives will partner with production companies early on. We want them to investigate their options with us particularly if they are on a limited budget, so that when the boards come to us, executing their vision is possible.
"We believe that ad agencies need to create an atmosphere that inspires creativity. Fear hinders creative ideas from coming to the surface. Smaller agencies have done an excellent job of keeping their creative teams on track and generating smart, creative ideas.
"The corporatization of the advertising industry has not fueled creativity, but rather limited it. It is much harder to be a principled person in advertising today, but we believe it can happen. At Coppos, we remain committed to fostering and attracting working relationships and collaborations based on trust and mutual respect. It is the only way our industry can survive these changing times."
Plans For 2003: "Our plans for Coppos in the new year are to continue to streamline the company and remain lean, so that we can be competitive. We are relying more and more on technology in order to keep our company as flexible as possible. We watched a myriad of production companies go out of business last year, and we are continually adapting to the marketplace so that we remain solid and profitable. Attracting and nurturing young talent remains a cornerstone of our business, and we have an extremely diverse and high-quality team of directors on board with us."
Changing Landscape: "This business is no longer about big, beautiful spaces and the luxuries we all enjoyed. We may look to European production company models to influence our way of doing business, where the focus remains on the talent and the work—not all of the amenities better economic times brought. While we would love to expand, no one has the additional funding to do that right now. We will remain conservative through this economic climate and look to find the needs in our clients. Once we have identified what they require, we will find creative ways to provide them with what they need in terms of creativity, talent and high-quality results."
Matt Bijarchi
Director of broadcast production
Young & Rubicam, Chicago
Creative Climate Predictions: "I think that like most things to do with ’03, the creative climate will, in large part, continue to be dictated by the state of the economy. As we have all seen in a struggling economy, clients tend to favor "safe" work. If the economy improves, there will less restraint on creativity. Having said that, hats off to the folks who are producing creative, interesting work (and the clients that have allowed them to do so) in this challenging environment."
Bob Cagliero
Executive producer
89 Editorial, New York
Trends and Developments: "I think there will be a continuing simplification of design/effects needs offered by off-line shops, allowing talented editors to create more interesting work in-house, from the onset, more cost effectively. Also, I think the industry will further define the viability of 24p video and whether it will truly have a home in mainstream commercial production. If so, the post community will have to embrace it more readily and efficiently."
Creative Climate Predictions: "Hopefully, [there will be] more interesting and more consistent work on all levels. It seems the agency creative selling process is growing more and more conservative. We occasionally see this on choices made in the edit room, creating even greater differences in ‘for air’ and ‘agency’ versions of spots than before."
Industry Issues: "[One issue is] the respect the vendors receive from their clients as primarily small businesses that should not financially support larger entities because of ridiculous payment policies. [Also,] the ‘we haven’t been paid by our client on this yet’ excuse for past due payments is becoming more and more prevalent—and annoying."
Plans For 2003: "To continue to observe the twists and turns of our business and adapt our company to them as best as possible. We are hoping to diversify into other facets of creative post-production and design work. New media—yeah, we do that."
Peter Corbett
President/partner
Click 3X, New York
Trends and Developments: "We’re very hopeful for ’03. One trend we see on the agency front is the growth and proliferation of creative boutique agencies—often in response to layoffs and agency consolidation. In the design and effects world we see a continuation of a trend that offers really integrated approaches in both commercials and broadcast, rather than a client-driven, a la carte approach. We are also seeing an interesting growth in TV commercials on the web."
Creative Climate Predictions: "We thought that the creative climate in ’02 was very good, as evidenced by the strong work in the AICP show. What we’re hoping for is a stronger ad market as well as a continuation of great creative. We see a diversification of design companies augmenting [what they have to offer] with broadcast and branding creative."
Industry Issues: "From our perspective, we’re quite satisfied with the way the industry currently works. There are always specific industry problems on a certain projects, but [for the most part], agencies bid out appropriately and intelligently. Contrast this to the broadcast business, where the pitch work-to-reward ratio is way out of whack, and decisions are often eccentric. A more rational approach to that part of the business would be a welcome improvement!"
Plans For 2003: "Our approach to developing design and visual effects side-by-side—and infusing one with the other—is going to grow and expand. You will see an early announcement from us regarding a more holistic ‘solutions’ approach that we are really jazzed about, and we believe New York, in particular, sorely needs. We are also developing a hi-def initiative that [offers] alternate approaches to the traditional execution of even standard resolution projects. Finally, we are launching Hyperformance Media in early January, which creatively and interactively repurposes TV spots for the web.
David Frankel
Senior VP/associate director of television production
BBDO New York
Trends and Developments: "Incredibly, in this economy, it’s still a seller’s market for the A-list commercial directors. This will continue, but we’ll be seeing a lot more ‘non-production’ production for a lot less cost."
Creative Climate Predictions: "Irreverent humor keeps the nation laughing. Talking animals are history. MTV, pop culture, video games—all with a lot more T&A. Public service announcements directing us to our nearest smallpox inoculation center."
Nick Felder
Executive VP/director of broadcast production
Lowe New York
Trends and Developments: "The clear and conspicuous absence of the word ‘synergy’ from all ad-speak, ad press, client presentations, pitches, board minutes, stock reports and corporate communications across all media. And the return of smarter, more subtle comedy."
Creative Climate Predictions: "More Rear Window, less Vertigo."
Industry Issues: "3/4-inch technology will finally, finally, once and for all be crushed by DVD or [something] else."
Changing Landscape: "Agility, agility, agility. The landscape is always changing. New media are always arriving. There’s always expansion and contraction. It’s all about agility. Shed some pounds. Move quickly. React quicker—that kind of thing. Did I mention agility?"
Jim Geib
Executive producer
Twist, Minneapolis
Trends and Developments: "I believe that the advertisers and their agencies are looking at what’s next. While the :30 will remain in the forefront for some time, I believe we will see the erosion of dollars spent on that particular end of production. I think we will see more and more advertisers look to the content providers to get their branding message to the general consumer. At Twist, for example, we launched our own longform division earlier this fall. As a production company, we are looking to the future of advertising and adapting our own business model."
Creative Climate Predictions: "With everyone talking content, creativity will be held in higher regard than ever before. It will all come down to the idea and how to tell that idea in a fun, informative and entertaining manner. Creativity should be on a major upswing."
Industry Issues: "How to compete in the global business of advertising [is a major issue]. Each production company should be looking at where they fit into the global picture—local and even regional thinking for a forward-thinking production company is no longer enough. We must look at all the options available to us, and our clients. If we don’t, someone else surely will. Twist has a global and international focus. Our projects are generated and [shot] all over the world. We also have New Zealand-based directors who diversify our creative reach."
Plans For 2003: "In addition to keeping our eyes open for emerging talent for spotwork, we intend to focus our efforts on becoming an international player. Twist also intends to develop the branded content side of our business for our existing and new clients. We have great skills in telling stories and [building] brands for our clients. We need to apply those skills to the brand content side of the business as well. We see Twist as the model of the next-generation production company. We maintain a lean structure, so that our focus can be on bringing in the best talent, nurturing and growing that talent with the best work and being flexible enough to take on the most creative projects with the agencies generating the best creative ideas. We are also positioned internationally because this is a global marketplace, and we are ready for the evolution of the advertising business."
Sarah Jenks
Managing director
Piper Productions, bicoastal
Trends and Developments: "The Federal Reserve’s expansive policies in the last 18 months have provided liquidity to the economy and pushed interest rates to historically low levels, setting the stage for a robust recovery which began at least six months ago."
Creative Climate Predictions: "Anticipated cuts in taxes on dividends or corporate profits will cause a run-up in stock prices. Since the economy is in recovery, it should be good for business across the board. There is risk due to the possible war in Iraq, however—it would appear that a substantial fall in oil prices is as likely as a substantial rise. The 2004 Olympic Games will provide an additional surge of advertising spending."
Industry Issues: "As clients increase spending on media buys, there is more pressure on spots to resonate with audiences. In the advertising recession of ’01, playing safe was perhaps encouraged. In a robust economic climate, mediocrity will be less tolerated. Competition for consumers’ swelling discretionary dollars will be fierce. Advertising will have to capture the hearts and minds of the viewer."
Plans For 2003: "We will continue to add directors who have a vision that can benefit the market. The industry will increasingly demand directors who can create memorable commercials that help define a brand."
Jeff Labbe
Senior VP/creative director
Leo Burnett USA, Chicago
Trends and Developments: "Lately, there hasn’t been any freshness other than the Fallon Minneapolis stuff. And when I say freshness, I specifically mean fresh ways of execution.
There have been smart ideas—there always are. One of the people to look at in the States would be Chuck McBride [of TBWA/Chiat/Day, San Francisco]. You have to admire his courage—he’s always trying something new—like the slug spot he did this year for Adidas. Also watch Jamie Barrett [of Goodby, Silverstein & Partners, San Francisco]. His Saturn spot was refreshing for that brand—but it was just one; I wish the others that followed, followed with the courage of his execution. And we all know Eric Silver [Cliff Freeman and Partners, New York] will do something to make us jealous. And there’s always Wieden+Kennedy [Portland, Ore.].
"Overall it would be nice to evolve how commercials are made—i.e. the format. The web seems [to be] an easy place to experiment. What I can’t understand is if a short film works on web, certainly you would want it to run in primetime in a two-minute format. I would like to see clients get brave enough to own the media they choose to run, versus just occupying a time slot."
Creative Climate Predictions: "I would hope the creative climate and the economy becomes braver in ’03. Hell, we are all bleeding money, but that’s not why we are in this business. We should stay focused on the work, and not the economy or agency revenues."
Industry Issues: "It seems we had a brief time a few years ago where advertising was looked at as an entertainment/creative profession. I was proud to do ads. Now it seems it’s being looked at once again as a science that needs to generate results. [Advertising] is not a science, in my opinion. It’s an art form, and the day my boss walks in and says it’s a science is the day I am done. So, the big industry issues for me would be to stay focused on making clients and agency infrastructures. Remember, art comes from the soul, and science is for nerds."
Steve Lavy
Co-founder/executive producer
V12, Santa Monica
Trends and Developments: "For many people, the current trend is about survival. To that end, the development we expect in ’03 is that companies will have to seek business wherever it is available. We believe this movement will redefine the landscape and eventually lead to an overall expansion of the marketplace.
"There have been numerous developments in the different types and ranges of work that is available. At V12, we have been fortunate enough to have developed in a variety of areas—design and branding for broadcast, commercial advertising and long-format content—and as these things blend and converge, we seek new ways of developing brand image for our clients. We see this as another key development in the increased consolidation of skill sets—merging of production and post, technology and design, etc. The long held concept of "production" used to imply a camera and a crew only. This is a definition that is being expanded and changed as we speak, and as advancements in technology become commonplace so, too, will the creative model be expanded and transmuted by how technology enables the creative process."
Creative Climate Predictions: "Should things remain relatively stable, I cannot foresee a huge shift in the climate for next year. That’s a big IF right now. The biggest consequence comes in the form of the industry’s direct connection to the market economy, [which] makes it difficult to predict how the possible events of ’03 might affect our business in the short or long term. 9/11 changed the market in ways that no one could have imagined much less predicted then. That should tell us something about now.
"In general what I do see are small pockets of extraordinary creativity in a larger plateau of creative caution. There are plenty of extremely talented and creative people in our industry. But in a time of economic uncertainty, the risk-takers are few. The potential for breakout creative will come from one of those small pockets. If and when that happens, there will be a shift."
Industry Issues: "The most important issue (or New Year’s wish) is that people move toward better levels of communication. We are only as useful as our clients make us, and the same can be said for how we treat our vendors. Like the infamous movie line, ‘Help me help you,’ our goal is always to make our clients shine—but we need to act as partners, not adversaries.
"Attempting collaboration without the proper channels of communication, and without the ability to understand the big picture as well as the needed details, is a great challenge. Increased communication will lead to accountability. And trust, as a byproduct of accountability, will grow. How do we plan on aiding this process? By honing our skills, coming to projects as early in the creative process as possible, facilitating honest dialogue about expectation and goals and doing the same with those companies that help us help our clients."
Plans For 2003: "Diversification is a given, no matter how difficult it may be, and should be perceived as a means for potential expansion, if not outright survival. But it has to be smart-there’s the rub. We believe that being nimble and open to opportunity is imperative for the years ahead. Scalability is also key. [At] V12, our plans are for moderate expansion as we find opportunities that warrant such a move. Cultivating a strong freelance pool to support dynamic creative direction allows us to expand and contract to meet the needs of any project."
Changing Landscape: "There appears to be no such thing as a technology revolution—it’s more a daily evolution. Advancements happen moment to moment, and become incorporated into our lives so quickly that they are taken for granted. Remember our lives before the Internet, before faxes, before desktop graphics and editing systems? We hardly give it a second thought. The same will be said for advancements that happen in the near future. New media will become old media before we know it, and that’s what makes our world exciting."
Diane McArter
Managing director
Omaha Pictures, Santa Monica
Creative Climate Predictions: "Based on continued improvement in the economy there are two things that we are expecting for the coming year: 1) a return to growth in traditional media as clients reposition themselves with fresh new work and 2) continued efforts in branded content and other new advertising models. With the industry still recovering from the financial setback of ’01, and continued uncertainty [caused by] the threat of war, we anticipate growth to be modest and ventures into new advertising models to be conservative. Beyond this year, however, we expect more aggressive changes resulting from audiences’ ever-increasing control over the content and media that they consume. This fundamental shift in audience behavior holds profound implications for the traditional ad industry."
Plans For 2003: "To meet this predicted shift, our company is taking advantage of this coming year of relative conservatism to diversify and expand assertively into the area of original content development and it’s application to these inevitable advertising problems. In this new space, we will work more closely and more proactively with agencies to further pioneer rational, new ad models. This year will test our ability to shift from the reactive mindset that has defined production companies to date, to a more proactive and strategic approach to the business."
Tom Mooney
Partner/president
Headquarters, bicoastal
Trends and Developments: "Surprise me."
Creative Climate Predictions: "Hot and stinky."
Industry Issues: "More money and more women."
Plans For 2003: "L.A., Cannes, L.A., AICP, MoMA, L.A., Kinsale, L.A., Nantucket, L.A., L.A., Home, L.A., Yankees Stadium, Vale, Christmas in L.A. [Also,] to merge with H.S.I., MJZ, hungry man, Bob, Radical, Tool, Anonymous/Gorgeous, and Coppos, so I can be in the SHOOT Top Ten next year and call the company M.O.O.N.E.Y. Expansion? My waist and wallet. Adapting to a changing landscape? Better shoes. New media? Haven’t we had enough new media?"
Dave Morrison
Executive producer/co-head, commercial division
Anonymous Content, bicoastal
Trends and Developments: "In terms of big trends in actual commercials, comedy is always a big thing [but it’s too early to tell what the trends for ’03 will be]. The first half of ’02 was misery, while the second half was like five years ago. [Now] we’re jamming, and have been since June or July. Right now, every director [at Anonymous] is booked through the end of January. I think that will continue, barring a war, or another terrorist attack. Ironically, it’s not specific to our company—I’m hearing that other people are busy, too. I don’t know that for fact, but we’ve never been busier, and I’m not spinning. At this point, there are jobs that people want to give us, [but] we just don’t have directors for. Hopefully, that will go on for the next few quarters, and it’s not just some fourth quarter feel-good thing. The third quarter was like that for us, too."
Creative Climate Predictions: "[Creativity is] lame right now. I think generally good creative work is always risky, and people don’t want to take risks right now, even if the economy starts to pick up again. And I think people have to get a little more confident in their past, present and future for them to take risks. Generally, the best creative we’ve seen has no money. There’s always really good work around somewhere, but when you see good work and decent budgets, that’s really rare. The more you see of those two in jobs [the better]. That’s the best barometer you can ever get for where the advertising business is in terms of confidence."
Industry Issues: "I think payment from clients and agencies to production companies is going to be a huge issue. I think insurance for productions is going to be a big issue. The insurance they have in Europe is so much more extensive than the insurance that productions are given here. I think it will change, with more English directors and production companies working here, because they’re like, ‘How can you Americans work under those circumstances?’ Some of the best directors in the American ad business are British. I definitely think payments from clients to agencies—and agencies to production companies—are going to be a larger issue. There’s an over-saturation of directors and production companies, and I absolutely think we’ll see more closures. Because even with business getting better, it’s still suffering from over-saturation from three or four years ago."
Plans For 2003: "[We’d like to] win the Palm d’Or, and do the best work. We’re talking about doing some more longform things with other clients that we’re developing right now—not unlike BMW. We’d like to [work with] one or two of those that are very high profile, because they were a lot of fun for us. Hopefully, we’ll just keep a really interesting roster. I think, the year has been good for us, and we plan to just continue that and do some great work, and hopefully stay at the top of the food chain to some degree—that’s the aim—and still have time for a personal life."
Steve Neely
Head of production North America and executive VP/executive producer
FCB San Francisco
Industry Issues: "I am optimistic about ’03; ’02 was all right; ’01 was worse. Why not think ’03 will be better? But a correction needs to be made for this to happen. We have been led too much by our industry business voice, and not our industry creative voice. The creative voice has become muted or meek. It is time for everyone in [his or her] individual office to stand up and demand creative leadership (and hope the response will be satisfying). We need to act within our own offices. We need many creative voices that understand our clients’ needs, and can respond with good to excellent work—not just a corporate business voice. After all, if there is no creative work…"
John Noble
Senior VP/head of broadcast production
The Martin Agency, Richmond, Va.
Trends and Developments: "24p HD—this format will not only rear its head for ’03 but it’ll [also] be around long after that. It’s certainly not the answer for every production, but it’s a good format, especially for real people performances and when time and money are considerations. I think what Ken Yagoda [managing partner/director of broadcast production, Young & Rubicam, New York] is doing with the "Dreams" project is terrific. The spot community needs to know this format (its strengths and its weaknesses) and stop turning their backs to it. In ’03, The Martin Agency will be looking for directors and top production houses to have 24p HD experience.
"Advertainment/new media—really, what the hell is it? I think the BOB network will wake everyone up. Clients and agencies will experiment there and new media will finally have an outlet and a place to live. Some of it will be transparent and some of it will be great but one thing is for sure, it’ll be fun to watch and see what unfolds. We’ll be there with our clients.
"VOD—video on demand will create a ‘buzz’ but I don’t believe the technology is just there yet for a big audience. I’ll be curious to see the results from Cox’s ad-supported VOD trial in San Diego. Marketers like Volvo and Sony are smart to experiment now because when VOD rolls out big they’ll be ready. When they work out the kinks, VOD will be terrific."
Creative Climate Predictions: "The climate overall has got to get better. If not, then it’s time for me to start my own punk band and tour the world."
Industry Issues: "Obviously, the SAG contract renewal is a big one. Lots to say here, but the 200-word limit ain’t gonna cut it. Plus I’d probably speak my mind and get into a whole lot of trouble. [Also, I’m] not sure if this is an ‘issue’ for anyone else but please, please stop the playing musical chairs with the directors. I’m tired of the drama and I’m tired of tracking down who is where now. Plus, given some of the deals I’ve heard about, I don’t particularly think it’s a healthy thing for the industry. Directors, find a good home and stay put."
Plans For 2003: "Music Temp Trax. We get it and we will change our policies for 2003. Music companies should look forward to hearing from us nice and early—are you (music houses) sure you want that?"
Stephen Orent
Partner/executive producer
Hungry man, bicoastal/international
Trends and Developments: "I believe that ’03 is going to be the year of the animal revolt. I think they’re tired of their advertising depiction as helpless, uncaring creatures. Watch out for the ’03 animal uprising. Besides the animals I feel that comedy is still very trendy. Nobody is laughing about the stock market so we might as well be laughing at good comedic ads. It helps to not take ourselves too seriously."
Creative Climate Predictions: "I believe that the industry was really starting to shake the cobwebs out by the end of the third and fourth quarters of ’02. Advertising was loosening up and the board flow was moving downstream. Creatively, I think everyone is trying to push the envelope as much as possible. Look at the work Crispin Poter +Bogusky, Miami, is doing. The Europeans never stop pushing. I really feel the business is gaining some momentum for a breakout advertising year in ’03. I know I’m being optimistic, but why not?"
Changing Landscape: "Hungry man is a New York-based company with offices in L.A. and London. We would want nothing more than to be shooting in our backyards as much as possible. There are other countries such as South Africa and Australia, as well as many European cities that make it very hard on U.S. companies to stay home. The production dollar stretches so far overseas, and the support is terrific. I hope that people in the states are listening and realizing we all have to compromise a little. A half a loaf of bread is better than white sticky rice. Let’s all understand each other; the business has evolved into an ever-changing beast! We must continually adapt to the changing landscape.
I feel if we subscribe to the theory that bunts and singles can also win championships then we can all thrive in this industry for a long time!"
John Palestrini
CEO
The Blue Rock Editing Company, New York
Creative Climate Predictions: "Finding new ways to stay viable in a hostile economic environment remains the biggest challenge ahead. We have no choice but to continue to become better at what we do, branch out into other arenas and approach everything we do, even the ‘basics,’ from new directions."
Trends and Developments: "Editing companies are [great at] adapting to changing environments and actually embracing that change. While this has not been an easy time for anyone, postproduction companies have managed to make the necessary shifts in their way of doing business. In fact, in many instances, the economic pressures of the past few years have motivated us to get leaner and meaner. While there was a great deal of pain and uncertainty involved, it was, for the most part, a very healthy thing."
Industry Issues: "Advanced technologies will continue to push the limits of what we can do. We will do more and more finishing, sound design and graphic design in-house. The power of good design with good editing will continue to grow in importance. I would love to see a more balanced approach to choosing an editor. Unfortunately, the sample reel has become the ‘be all and end all’ of this process. People often forget that an editor’s sample reel, more often than not, merely reflects the opportunities that the editor was given. Unique concepts and great direction are the key components of a strong reel—neither of which is within the editor’s control.
"The practice of choosing an editor solely on the basis of sample reels has created a lopsided playing field that shuts out some of the best talent. Many very skilled editors have been unable to put together a reel that can ‘compete.’ However, this is more a result of the process than of the editor’s innate ability. There are some very talented editors with great reels. However, any good, experienced editor who is given the opportunity to work with a terrific concept and strong footage will usually edit a great spot. Obviously, some editors are better suited than others for a particular project. In those situations, the sample reel has value. However, to refuse to even consider a proven, often-superior editor, simply because his or her reel doesn’t quite ‘measure up,’ does a disservice to us all, and to the overall creative process."
Creative Climate Predictions: "The need for good creative work will continue to intensify. I think we all agree that there is no better way to ace out the competition than with superior creativity. Because we live and die by how well we compete in a creatively driven industry, the heat will be turned up on us to deliver something newer and better. As the economy continues to tighten, the demand for unique and interesting ideas seems to get higher. While this puts a lot of pressure on us all, it also brings out the best in us. Creative people love a challenge. Once their juices start flowing, there’s no way to stop them.
"I think companies will aggressively seek out and promote talented people. When it comes to finding good people with fresh perspectives, geographic boundaries are much less a factor than they once were. We are no longer timid about bringing someone in from anywhere in the world. Ironically, it is the shrinking economy that is forcing us to expand our creative horizons."
Plans For 2003: "We will continue to expand and develop our companies wherever we see an opportunity for growth. Blue Rock continues its evolution; we now have an amazing group of editors and a very sophisticated support system behind them. To borrow an advertising phrase, ‘This is not your uncle’s editing company.’ We are very proud of what we’ve become, but we never sit back and think we’re ‘there,’ because you’re never really ‘there.’
"Spontaneous Combustion is a different company than it was three years ago, or even one year ago. Spontaneous has become a design-driven shop. We recently hired a brilliant creative director and a very serious executive producer to drive the train. There’s a lot of great stuff that happens early on in a campaign or a spot, and we want to be there when it does.
"In addition to Blue Rock and Spontaneous, we have Epoxy (our finishing division), Blast Audio (sound mixing and sound design), Raw Talent (a training ground for our young editors and advanced assistants), a DVD department and ShotBot, our video asset management department. Having all of these operations under one roof gives us the flexibility to change and adapt very quickly."
Ed Patrowicz
Managing director
Guava, New York
Industry Issues: "Some people feel that we will see an upturn in advertising spending in the coming year. Other reports state that this will not happen until ’04. Although forecasting is an art and not a science, we have seen downturns in our industry in the past. These were always followed by an upturn. This time the big question is will it recover to what it once was? Time will tell."
Plans For 2003: "Focus on commercials. Keep our eye on the digital future. Hope for the best and expect the worst. On the economic side, Guava opened this past May and although industry reports show that it has been a down year, we have worked on some successful projects that we feel bodes well for us in ’03. This moderate success in our first seven months will hopefully be a foundation to build on in the new year. We expect that a small increase in advertising budgets is possible in ’03 due to the fact that the financial correction we are experiencing may be nearing the end.
"One of the most exciting things about our industry is that it is constantly evolving. We are pushing the envelope more each year and I believe this will continue in the coming year. From a visual effects standpoint, clients want to be original and are constantly looking for new ideas. This is what we consider to be our main role as a visual effects design company, [along with] being creative partners with our clients. We also want to generate work that stands out and have some fun along the way.
"Our plans for the coming year include development of 3-D animation and design. We believe it’s a critical element in the development of Guava. Other than that, we do not have plans for any major expansion, but we are constantly adjusting to our client’s needs."
Mark Polyocan
CEO
The Tapehouse Companies, New York
Trends and Developments: "Creatively, we are seeing more and more spots that are risky, daring, imaginative and humorous—work that really stops you in your tracks. And the humor is something that was missing for much of ’02. I think it is reflective of our own energy, and that we will continue to see work that inspires us and makes us think."
Plans For 2003: "For ’03, we’ve added increased services and personnel at The Anx, our downtown location. Having several of our colorists and editors based there permanently has worked out well for our clients. We’ve been seeing lots of activity and there is a high energy level when you’ve got all that talent in one place. There’s great synergy with Carl Mandelbaum of Photomag, our audio division, coupled with the colorists and editors at The Anx.
"Likewise, at our 45th Street location, we’ve been seeing a great increase in communication of all sort-both traditional media as well as the Internet, theatrical release and more. Our HD department is seeing more clients finish in HD. Agencies continue to express more interest in the form, especially as government regulations on HD come closer to reality. Tapehouse Digital Film has been seeing more conversions suitable for release in theatrical markets and new media. Additionally, our broadband division is seeing more work calling for delivery over the internet or to be used on the web. We are finding increased interest from agency creatives for both our CGI department at Black Logic, as well as the 2-D work created by Tapehouse Toons.
"We’ve taken steps to more fully integrate what we offer clients in all formats and styles; to have our divisions work together so our clients can easily [use] all the artists and the tools we have [and] get the best work."
Howard Schwartz
Founder/CEO
HSR Studios, New York
Trends and Developments: "I see consolidation continuing, but weeding out as well. There will be more layoffs as redundant jobs are eliminated. Companies will pare down or close when there is such poor cash flow that assets will need to be protected. Suppliers will compete more fiercely and price will dominate. The most important trend is that there will be less wasted energy, words and feelings as we all sharpen our pencils."
Creative Climate Predictions: "To differentiate ourselves, creativity will be the only thing we have to sell. The people who are the most creative and innovative will win clients, awards and [money]. You can see it already happening. The hacks will be working at the Wiz, not on the Wiz."
Industry Issues: "From an advertising standpoint, taking the creative work—i.e. shooting, editing, mixing—inside an agency means that they are competing with us directly. To some of us this is a big financial hardship. To others it is an opportunity. In TV shows and movies, Canada and offshore production and postproduction subsidized by governments are a big issue. Unions will always be issues."
Plans For 2003: "We are bolstering our creative output with new techniques and gizmos. We are becoming very price-sensitive. Paying attention to our clients and competitors needs and movements will keep us ahead of the trends."
Cami Taylor and Dan Lindau
Co-owners
Crossroads Films, bicoastal and Chicago
Trends and Developments: "Since diversification has been an ongoing and integral part of our company plan for the past few years, we hope to benefit from it in ’03. We are confident that we can continue to work towards a new model to accommodate the changes that have—and will—occur. It remains both an exciting and somewhat alarming time where change and adaptation is part of the everyday way business must be done."
Changing Landscape: "Every few years, there is a technology or business model that is going to render traditional advertising obsolete. Although we have never believed that we were on the brink of extinction, we have spent the last 10 years building complementary service and content businesses to aid during slow times that better serve our talent, and anticipate any real changes in the way advertising is presented. We believe the near future will bring further consolidation in both the agency and production businesses. We think disc recorders (like TiVo) will impact our industry. We know good television advertising will be around for the foreseeable future."
Mark Thomas
Managing Director
Area 51 Films, Santa Monica
Changing Landscape: "The world’s going to be a much smaller place with production companies and directors working for agencies [everywhere]. It’s a business without borders, more than it ever has been before, and you could thank technology in part for that—i.e. creatives are able to view reels on line, making it a worldwide market place, much more so than ever before."
Creative Climate Predictions: "It will depend on a number of factors that are way beyond anybody’s control, starting with courage entirely having to do with client risk. The agencies will continue to generate strong ideas, and we’ll see."
Steve Wax
Partner
Chelsea Pictures, bicoastal/international
Trends and Developments: "I expect three trends: One, attention will shift to an older demographic, so the challenge will be to create edgy, entertaining broadcast ads for 40- to 60-year-olds. Two, attention will finally shift to long pieces, two- to five- minute shorts/commercials that are primarily entertaining, but are branded. Three, the difference between an ad agency and a production company will become less clear."
Creative Climate Predictions: "[It’s difficult,] as it has been for the past couple years, [with] Time Warner putting TiVo in their set top boxes, and directors leaving to do movies.
Alex Weil
Founder/CEO/executive creative director
Charlex, New York
Plans For 2003: "We are using 3-D as our primary vehicle for creative growth. Though our department is only about 15-months-old, we shot out of the box with great projects and we’ve been on an upswing since.
"We are producing an in-house mini-feature called labratz, which we are hoping will be an artistic breakthrough for us. The film has got us working outside the commercial box with people like Muppet’s designer Michael Frith and Ice Age designer Peter deSeve. We have brought some of these folks over to the commercial side with great success. This experimental creative risk taking is invigorating for all of us.
"Graphics and effects—traditionally the heart of our business, this area will continue to be enhanced by the integration of photo-realistic 3-D elements into our repertoire. We also recruited Anne Skopas, formerly of Nice Shoes/Guava, who will help us extend our reach further into the editorial and directorial community. We believe we bring far more than technical services to our projects. We always try to add personality in some way to the work we do.
"We will continue to seek relationships with top talent. In addition to bringing on a 12-man animation staff, this year we added creative director Colin McGreal,who just finished directing a short film, award-winning Jeet Tailor from the BBC and former Attik designer John O’Callaghan.
"On the technical side, major, Copernican-size changes are happening here. The introduction of PC-based Maya into our culture has made it clear that this is the way we will be going. I don’t think we will ever purchase a "single purpose" piece of equipment again. It is safe to say that within 24 months there will not be a single chip in service at Charlex that was here 12 months ago. We are undergoing a complete technical overhaul under the guiding hand of our engineering director, Harry Skopas, and his technical staff. Soon Charlex will be one big computer with lots of workstations.
"Ultimately, enthusiasm this is the secret ingredient that gets us through both good and bad times. There seems to always be a demand for people who love to do great work.
Replacing myself with Chris Byrnes as the president of Charlex may be the smartest thing I ever did. It’s really working."
Sue Willis
Senior producer
BBDO New York
Trends and Developments: "One of the biggest developments will be more international production. Contrary to popular belief that people are traveling less, business will go anywhere to find the best talent, locations and budgets for each spot."
Creative Climate Predictions: "The financial climate coupled with intense competition will challenge agencies to come up with new creative solutions and keep an open mind about working with new people. And finding new ways to solve problems can be a rewarding experience because there is a lot of viable talent to be found in new places."
