At press time, talks between the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers were ongoing, fueling hope that a strike could be averted. As earlier reported (SHOOT, 4/20, pgs. 1 and 4), Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan decided to get involved, commissioning a study to document the devastating impact that a strike action by the WGA and/or the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) would have on the Southern California economy.
Now the results of that study have been released in order to bring public pressure to bear on labor and management to reach a settlement. Conducted by economic think tank The Milken Institute and economic and public policy consulting firm Sebago Associates, the study offered three strike scenarios.
In the event of a short, two-month strike by writers, Greater Los Angeles would lose some 47,300 jobs and $2.5 billion during the second quarter of the year, according to the Milken/ Sebago research. This would be followed by a third-quarter loss of 3,200 jobs and $300 million.
In the event of a three-month writers’ strike and a month-long actors’ strike, second-quarter damages would also be 47,300 jobs and $2.5 billion, with the third-quarter toll being 43,400 jobs and $2.3 billion.
And, finally, should prolonged strikes come to pass—a five-month writers’ strike and a three-month actors’ strike—the estimated second-quarter losses would remain at 47,300 jobs and $2.5 billion. But the third-quarter figures would jump to 81,900 jobs and $4.4 billion.
"We want the negotiators to think about the people who are not at the bargaining table, but will be affected by the strike," said Riordan during a City Hall press conference. "I am advising both sides to reach a compromise that will satisfy members of the union and satisfy the stockholders of the [feature/TV] studios."
Last week, Riordan made an appearance at 20th Century Props in North Hollywood, where he was surrounded by workers, vendors and business owners who would be hit hard by a strike or strikes. Again, Riordan called for "a spirit of compromise."
If nothing else, the joint Milken/Sebago study documents the significance of the film/ TV industry to the health of our economy—and that’s not counting the revenue generated by the commercialmaking community. (It’s estimated that Los Angeles County alone lost more than $200 million as a result of last year’s actors’ strike against the advertising industry.)
Indeed, the study underscores the importance of the runaway production issue, which is gaining attention on state and national levels. Recently, the New York State Assembly introduced a proposal calling for the establishment of a $10 million anti-runaway fund, which is likely to gain passage (SHOOT, 4/13, p. 1). And Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.) is reportedly in the process of drafting a federal anti-runaway measure that would offer a tax credit incentive to shoot in the U.S.
Informed sources conjecture that this legislative session could offer the best prospects ever for tax-related relief to help address the runaway production problem. They cite such factors as having a pro-tax-credit president in office, and the appointment of Rep. William M. Thomas (R-Calif.) as chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee
But the possibility of a writers’ and/or actors’ strike carries legislative implications, in addition to the fiscal effects projected by Milken/Sebago research. Quoted in the Los Angeles Times, Rep. Howard Berman (D-Calif.), a proponent of anti-runaway reform, noted that "as an objective political observation, it’ll be tough to promote a tax incentive program when an entire industry is shut down."
